Michael A. Melnyk, Author at Elegant Casas - Full-Service Real Estate Brokerage

Predictions for 2017

January 5, 2017 by Michael A. Melnyk

It’s time for our 2017 predictions and it looks like this year is going to have a normalization of the real estate market in Tampa Bay.

Prices are expected to continue increasing this year, however at a slower pace compared to last year. It’s expected that price growth will be around 4-5% and sales will continue growing at around 5%, meaning that the Tampa Bay area is still considered to be a good place for sellers or buyers looking to get into the market.

Home availability has been an important factor and since conditions aren’t expected to change for 2017 we estimate it will influence the price rise in the market just as in 2016. This is mainly because the market is moving quite rapidly and despite a low inventory of homes, homes are constantly moving in and out of the market.

Just as we expected in 2016, Millennials (born between 1980’s and 2000) will continue to play a central role in the housing market for Tampa Bay. However, this year we’re also expecting that baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) will have an important place in the market. According to surveys, Millennials alone are expected to amount for approximately 33% of buyers while baby boomers are estimated to be about 30%.

Tampa Bay is undergoing important infrastructure investments which in turn is predicted to generate increased interest and demand for Tampa Bay housing. In comparison to other popular Florida markets, Tampa Bay is considered to be more affordable, and there seems to be a tendency for easier access to credit opportunities. Interestingly, it is possible that high rents and easier access to mortgages could drive more tenants to buy homes.

Among the factors to watch for this year include:
• Rising mortgage interest rates
• Accelerated interest and demand for Tampa Bay real estate
• Easier access to credit
• Trump’s jobs initiatives
• Investment in infrastructure
• Affordability
• Availability of inventory

Everything looks positive for Tampa Bay for this year. Property prices should keep going up. Whether it plays out as a buyer’s or seller’s market in 2017 will depend a lot on the amount of inventory that becomes available.

Predictions for 2016

January 15, 2016 by Michael A. Melnyk

Forecast 2016

Hello Tampa Bay,

Here are predictions for 2016:

1. 2016 = NORMAL
We are expecting a healthy growth in prices, although at a slower pace compared to recent years. After many years of abnormal trends, market conditions are becoming more normal. I expect that home prices will increase at a more normal rate due to the market being more balanced. I predict that home values will increase 4-5% in 2016.

2. Higher Rent
Rents have been climbing at an explosive rate, increasing more rapidly than home prices. This trend will continue to enlarge the gap of affordability of buying versus renting.

3. Higher Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are expected to be pushed higher, but the level of increase should be manageable for most buyers. I predict that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will end 2016 about 50 basis points higher than today at around 4.5%.

4. Entry-level New Homes
New construction will continue the trend towards entry-level homes. Builders will continue to shift to more affordable homes for entry-level buyers. This is largely due to increased access to credit, as well as changing demographics.

5. Milennials
Milennials (ages 25-34) will continue to play a major force in the market. They represented 1/3 of home buyers in 2015 at nearly two billion sales.

Best regards,

Michael A. Melnyk

Predictions for 2015

January 31, 2015 by Michael A. Melnyk

Hello Tampa Bay:

I wanted to share with you my predictions for 2015.

SLOWER GAINS IN PRICE
I predict home prices will rise 3% in 2015. With improving inventory and the exit of institutional investors, we’ve entered into a “normal” phase of steady growth, rather than the rapid recovery phase of 2012-2014.

BUYING HYSTERIA TO FADE
The homebuying process will be less hectic in 2015. I’ve already seen the home buying process become easier for regular people. Sellers will face more competitive pressure, and buyers will face less…as inventory continues to rise, investors exit, and buyers face increased access to credit. As such, a more balanced market will continue to develop.

MORTGAGE RATES WILL RISE
I predict interest rate on 30-year mortgage will rise to 4.5%. We are currently near historic lows of 3.7%.

FORECLOSURES WILL DECLINE
Foreclosures will continue to decline as many people have gained equity in their home due to the price gains over the past few years.

GLOBAL BUYERS
Foreign buyers will continue to play a huge role in Tampa Bay housing market. In 2014, Florida had the highest percentage of foreign buyers in the country, and Tampa Bay had the highest percentage among Florida metropolitan areas (even higher than Miami!).

Best regards,

Michael A. Melnyk

Predictions for 2014

February 1, 2014 by Michael A. Melnyk

Hello Tampa Bay:

I wanted to share with you my predictions for 2014.

PRICES
I predict market values in Tampa Bay will increase by 6% by January 2015. We are starting to see a stabilization. The housing market staged a spectacular recovery over the past year. I see the market continuing it’s upswing, but at a much cooler pace. Due to this stabilization, as well as lessening inventory and very attractive selling prices, today is a great opportunity to list a home on the market.

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
I predict that we will continue to see many bank-owned properties and short sales hit the market. Although the volume is less than previously, there are still many great investment opportunities that exist. The good news is that many of the professional investors have left the market, which gives more opportunity to find a hidden gem to flip or rent for an attractive profit.

MORTGAGE RATES
I predict that mortgage rates will increase to 5.00% by January 2015. 30-year fixed mortgages were at record-breaking lows, so it appears that they can only go up at this point. Especially as the Federal Reserve continues to taper quantitative easing. As the U.S. economy continues to improve, economists foresee mortgage rates worsening.

ELEGANT CASAS
Elegant Casas is defined by both integrity and a very high level of service. We have the technological tools, financial backing, and professionalism to ensure that you have a pleasurable real estate experience in 2014.

Best regards,

Michael A. Melnyk